{"axis":{"id":"thesis_next_chemistry","name":"차세대 배터리 화학 경쟁","proposition":"전고체 지연이 만든 공백을 나트륨이온·LFP가 선점한다. 각 화학이 양산·공급계약에 도달하는 순서가 판가름이다.","status":"active","born_at":"2026-08-12T02:01:46.720271+00:00","parent":"battery","criteria_version":"v0.1"},"claims":[{"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","statement":"2027-06-30까지 나트륨이온 또는 LFP의 양산·공급 계약 공식 발표가 2곳 이상 확인된다.","verify_at":"2027-06-30","result":null,"criteria_version":"v0.1"},{"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","statement":"2027-12-31까지 국내 3사 중 어느 곳도 전고체 양산 라인 가동을 공식 발표하지 않는다. [기준 시점 박제, 2026-08-04 기사: 삼성SDI 2026H2~2027 / LG에너지솔루션 2029 / SK온 2029] (반증: 양산 가동 발표, 또는 EV 판매가 실적 회복을 선행 설명)","verify_at":"2027-12-31","result":null,"criteria_version":"v0.1"}],"evidence":[{"id":1254,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"context","weight":1,"assigned_at":"2026-08-15T13:05:15.262065+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"중국 사이버 규제기관이 BYD 배터리 테스트 관련 거짓 평가를 한 블로거를 국가 단속 사건에 적시했다.","link":"https://carnewschina.com/2026/08/10/china-names-blogger-in-national-enforcement-case-over-byd-blade-battery-2-0-dispute/","published_at":"2026-08-10T05:15:30+00:00"},{"id":1255,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"refute","weight":3,"assigned_at":"2026-08-15T13:05:15.262065+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"CATL과 BYD가 2027년 고체 배터리 시험 생산을 목표로 경쟁하고 있다.","link":"https://carnewschina.com/2026/08/10/catl-joins-byd-in-targeting-2027-solid-state-battery-trial-production/","published_at":"2026-08-10T05:13:32+00:00"},{"id":1256,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"context","weight":1,"assigned_at":"2026-08-15T13:05:15.262065+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"Zeekr 7X 전기 SUV가 충전소에서 발화 사건에 대해 공식 입장을 발표했다.","link":"https://carnewschina.com/2026/08/10/zeekr-released-statement-on-the-7x-suv-firing-at-the-charging-station/","published_at":"2026-08-10T03:21:57+00:00"},{"id":1109,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"context","weight":1,"assigned_at":"2026-08-15T01:05:11.183515+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"대신증권이 알테오젠의 키트루다 큐렉스 판매 호조를 근거로 목표가를 6% 상향 조정한다.","link":"https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20260810018500008","published_at":"2026-08-09T23:37:41+00:00"},{"id":1110,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"context","weight":1,"assigned_at":"2026-08-15T01:05:11.183515+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"IBK투자증권이 파마리서치의 수출 성장 사이클 진입을 근거로 목표가를 50만원에서 53만원으로 상향한다.","link":"https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20260810017000008","published_at":"2026-08-09T23:28:14+00:00"},{"id":1065,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"context","weight":1,"assigned_at":"2026-08-15T01:04:07.70331+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"미국 버클리 연구실이 고체 재료 반응을 예측하는 AI 모델을 개발했다.","link":"https://technews.tw/2026/08/10/covering-the-fastest-computers-in-the-world-and-the-people-who-run-them-7/","published_at":"2026-08-09T23:20:54+00:00"},{"id":1066,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"refute","weight":2,"assigned_at":"2026-08-15T01:04:07.70331+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"일본 주미토 화학이 기존 제조 공정과 호환 가능한 고체 전해질 개발로 배터리 상용화를 앞당기고 있다.","link":"https://technews.tw/2026/08/10/sumitomo-chemical-process-compatible-mindset-solid-state-electrolyte-supply-chain/","published_at":"2026-08-09T23:00:27+00:00"},{"id":1046,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"context","weight":1,"assigned_at":"2026-08-14T13:04:58.201203+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"Pure Lithium이 리튬 금속 음극재 기술에 대한 호주 특허를 획득함","link":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxPbnhqSEZyLXJEMDRRV1djaXU3azJNaHdsVV8zdVVMNVpDX2E1WXptM1piZU9JbTR6OWdUTVp0Z0Fwc0xTUHR4YUtHeFJCTElJS05hd2VRazhja2dlbVE5SDA2UjFZZkNMTmVJXzEzNHVIay1jc3RQMUp2enhOcmRVUXVRZ2lmRjNNZEE2aU56NF9oTFNmR1NOWGd5ZFBMeEhtNlQ0QWxwUFRKQXROcGs3X0pfdGlyZVpFaldSVTlvUFZDVW05Unc?oc=5","published_at":"2026-08-07T09:13:00+00:00"},{"id":1047,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"support","weight":3,"assigned_at":"2026-08-14T13:04:58.201203+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"포스코퓨처엠이 주요 배터리 제조업체에 LFP 양극재를 공급함","link":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxNcWRLVlBUWXRDYmRjX2pMWmdtbUNOb0tyblpHb2dTNmZOWGdWenRlWXdBOGs3OHZBWUEzMkJDSnVfc2poa1FFRno3NmVoRml4NzlwVjVNVW12VWR1bFc5WVkxOHVpbVNDb3pzdWVLblFFY2YxdmY2RWJMTDl0MHZlQVlQYlpkS1owaEVLeDZjX3BjQWkwMGFKY1BFcDI?oc=5","published_at":"2026-08-08T16:48:03+00:00"},{"id":1044,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"context","weight":1,"assigned_at":"2026-08-14T13:04:40.586721+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"미국 에너지부가 차세대 배터리 기술을 설명하는 콘텐츠를 발행함","link":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxQY0ZoN0JnenJHNEI0ZjJla084SkJTSDk1TnExOTd4OG5ydXNmV0FObmx4dDJkUloxVnNlNjNiaTRwb2NMVkw3eEFmQXNDMlJXUWZmOXJiQW5FenhOZTB4aDYtZlg1X1NaeGdXOVVydWxNRU9qRXpNc1lsTi1JUFhoSEt3?oc=5","published_at":"2026-08-07T19:32:59+00:00"},{"id":1041,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"support","weight":3,"assigned_at":"2026-08-14T13:04:40.586721+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"LG에너지솔루션이 중국 로팔테크와 5조원대 LFP 양극재 공급 거래를 체결함","link":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiZ0FVX3lxTFA3Wk55YUYzWm02RnRkemZTQzlNZTFEU1ZPRHdvYnRVd19DdGdrTzdCX3pDMlhNRk55YlVzSTJ6WlBicFh5VkJsQ2dxQ0FFQ0dpR29Bd2VKem53TkVoN1h2ZnJ3X1o4U0U?oc=5","published_at":"2026-08-09T22:19:01+00:00"},{"id":896,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"context","weight":1,"assigned_at":"2026-08-14T01:05:17.086416+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"SK증권이 한국카본에 대해 하반기 원가 상승 우려에도 우호적 업황과 높은 밸류에이션 매력을 지적하며 목표가를 하향 조정했다.","link":"https://www.etoday.co.kr/news/view/2612557","published_at":"2026-08-09T23:10:00+00:00"},{"id":900,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"context","weight":1,"assigned_at":"2026-08-14T01:05:17.086416+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"유안타증권이 롯데케미칼의 올해 하반기 적자 전환을 우려하며 목표가를 기존 16만5000원에서 13만4000원으로 하향했다.","link":"https://www.etoday.co.kr/news/view/2612535","published_at":"2026-08-09T22:34:00+00:00"},{"id":873,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"context","weight":1,"assigned_at":"2026-08-14T01:04:44.630222+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"CATL이 eVTOL 항공기용 350Wh/kg 배터리 셀의 주요 안전 시험을 통과했다.","link":"https://cnevpost.com/2026/08/09/catl-aviation-battery-clears-key-safety-test/","published_at":"2026-08-09T10:41:06+00:00"},{"id":835,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"context","weight":2,"assigned_at":"2026-08-13T13:05:32.745155+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"국내 배터리 3사가 전고체 배터리를 로봇용 전원으로 개발하며 차기 성장동력을 노리고 있다.","link":"https://www.khan.co.kr/article/202608092025015/","published_at":"2026-08-09T11:25:01+00:00"},{"id":795,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"context","weight":1,"assigned_at":"2026-08-13T13:04:54.67975+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"대산석유화학 통합 1호가 다음달 출범하며 롯데와 HD현대가 결합한다.","link":"https://www.sedaily.com/article/20077407","published_at":"2026-08-09T09:49:03+00:00"},{"id":626,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"context","weight":1,"assigned_at":"2026-08-12T02:08:03.977293+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"롯데케미칼이 2분기 영업이익 1천101억원으로 2분기 연속 흑자를 기록했다.","link":"https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20260807111151527","published_at":"2026-08-07T07:10:34+00:00"},{"id":627,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"context","weight":1,"assigned_at":"2026-08-12T02:08:03.977293+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"롯데케미칼의 2분기 영업이익이 1천101억원으로 흑자로 전환했다.","link":"https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20260807111100527","published_at":"2026-08-07T06:45:33+00:00"},{"id":630,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"context","weight":1,"assigned_at":"2026-08-12T02:08:03.977293+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"금호석유화학의 2분기 영업이익이 전년 동기 대비 419.7% 증가해 3천390억원을 기록했다.","link":"https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20260807086051527","published_at":"2026-08-07T05:09:37+00:00"},{"id":631,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"context","weight":1,"assigned_at":"2026-08-12T02:08:03.977293+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"금호석유화학의 2분기 영업이익이 전년 동기 대비 419.7% 증가해 3천390억원을 기록했다.","link":"https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20260807086000527","published_at":"2026-08-07T04:49:16+00:00"},{"id":633,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"context","weight":1,"assigned_at":"2026-08-12T02:08:03.977293+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"이산화탄소를 고순도 포름산으로 직접 전환하는 기술로 생산비를 기존 대비 절반으로 낮췄다.","link":"https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20260807076200017","published_at":"2026-08-09T03:00:07+00:00"},{"id":634,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"context","weight":1,"assigned_at":"2026-08-12T02:08:03.977293+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"포집한 이산화탄소를 직접 전환해 고부가가치 화학물질 포름산을 기존 대비 절반 비용으로 생산하는 기술이 개발됐다.","link":"https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20260807076200017","published_at":"2026-08-09T03:00:07+00:00"},{"id":635,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"context","weight":1,"assigned_at":"2026-08-12T02:08:03.977293+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"주유소 기름값이 12주 연속 하락하며 휘발유·경유가 모두 1800원대를 유지했다.","link":"https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20260807134300003","published_at":"2026-08-07T23:01:00+00:00"},{"id":637,"thesis_id":"thesis_next_chemistry","stance":"context","weight":1,"assigned_at":"2026-08-12T02:08:03.977293+00:00","assigner_version":"as_v0.1","one_line_summary":"경기 안산의 염료 제조업체 공장에서 이틀 연속 화학물질 자연 발화가 발생했다","link":"https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20260807042451061","published_at":"2026-08-07T12:03:24+00:00"}],"articles":[]}